Out of all the stories to break this summer I never thought this one would fascinate me the most. Jose Mourinho has been hired as the Manchester United manager. Mr. Ibrahimovic (whoever that is) is on the verge of signing for Manchester United. The Euros are just about kick off and England arguably have a good chance of getting to the latter stages of the competition (that might be a bit of an overstatement due to the fact that Roy is taking only three centre halfs and we all know that football tournaments are won by having a good defence… Isn’t really his fault as he didn’t have many great CBs to choose from to be fair. Sorry I digress…). However out of all of these stories; it was the breaking news that Jamie Vardy’s transfer clause of 20 million pounds had been met. The team that triggered the clause you ask? Arsenal Football Club.
It wouldn’t surprise me if many of you are thinking ‘so what?’ He is a striker in brilliant form. He is also a Premier League Champion. It is inevitable that one of the top clubs in the league would make a bid for him. That is of course true. Interestingly enough though from talking to football fans over the weekend I have realised that this move seems to be a divisive one especially between Arsenal fans. Some say it is a master-stroke from Arsene Wenger considering the issues Arsenal have been having up front over recent years; going as far to say that this move is reminiscent of moment Arsenal signed Ian Wright from Crystal Palace in 1991. And we all know how that story went. (Just in case you didn’t know Ian Wright scored 128 goals in 221 games for Arsenal between 1991 and 1998). However there are some who feel that this move is not the right one for both player and Arsenal. They point at Vardy’s inexperience at the very top level and his previous years in the footballing wilderness as evidence that his 24 goals in the Premier League could just be a one off. He also will have no sell on value due to his age (29); so if the move isn’t successful Arsene would have to venture back into the market for a consistent goal scorer; something he seems to have to do every single transfer market over recent years.
So what is the deal with Jamie Vardy and his potential move to north London? I find that when a topic is this divisive it is best to deal with the facts rather than hearsay (take note those thinking about whether to vote to stay in the EU or leave). So in this article I will juxtapose the three key Arsenal and Jamie facts to try and give the move some context as well as being as objective as possible.
ARSENAL FACT #1: ARSENAL ARE IN DESPERATE NEED OF A CONSISTENT GOAL SCORER
In the 2015/16 season Arsenal recorded their worst goals to game ratio since the 2006/07 season. Then it was 1.66 goals per game. This year it was 1.71. This is somewhat very surprising considering that Mesut Ozil created more chances in a single season than any other player since the Premier League began. His total of 144 is astonishing considering the definition of a ‘chance created’ according to Opta. It is defined as: “an assist or the final pass or pass-cum-shot leading to the recipient of the ball having an attempt at goal without scoring”. This will not make good reading for every striker currently at Arsenal. Theo Walcott has scored 5 goals from 28 appearances (albeit 13 of them were from the bench). Olivier Giroud? In 38 games he scored 16 goals. Danny Welbeck got 4 in 11 premier league appearances; Alexis Sanchez 13 in 30. Something is clearly amiss going forward (excuse the pun).
JAMIE FACT #1: VARDY IS NOW THE MOST CONSISTENT PREMIER LEAGUE GOAL SCORER OVER ONE SEASON IN PREMIER LEAGUE HISTORY
Jamie Vardy scored in 11 consecutive Premier League games during the 2015/15 season. Some might say that it does not matter but clearly to Arsene it does. In doing so he broke a record held by the infamous Ruud Van Nistelrooy who really knew how to score goals on a consistent basis during his career. People often neglect the fact that Ruud he broke his own record from 2002 of scoring in 8 straight matches in 2003 when he got to 10. This clearly was no fluke for good old Ruud. Whether it is a fluke for Vardy remains to be seen. But what is clear after this season is that Vardy’s thirst for goals and work rate are unquenchable. During the first 12 appearances of the season only Harry Kane topped Vardy for distance covered (Kane’s 128.91 to Vardy’s 124.47km). Vardy however recorded the most shots on target during this period (25) and interestingly he also was the fastest player in the league; recording a top running speed of 35.44 km/h. If he applies himself with the same level of intensity when at Arsenal he would be a handful to say the least; especially with Ozil providing a nonsensical amount of ‘clear cut chances’.
ARSENAL FACT #2: ARSENAL LIKE TO KEEP THE BALL
In the 2015/16 season Arsenal topped the charts for the most successful passes made out of all the teams in the premier league with 17382. They also topped the average possession and the average pass accuracy tables too (55% and 85% respectively). Arsenal like to keep the ball for as long as they can until the find a way through the opposition. Teams have realised that this is Arsenals chief strength and attempt to nullify it by sitting deep and being defensively astute for as long as possible. If they are able to counter attack they will do and will try and take the rare chance they get at goal. This approach was demonstrated to a tee by Southampton in their 0-0 draw at the Emirates last season. Southampton cleared the ball 31 times and Fosterer had to save 11 shots on target. Arsenal dominated possession in the game (66.9% to 33.1%) but could not find a way through. It is fair to say that anybody coming to the club would potentially have to adapt their game to suit the methodical possession-based football that Arsenal deploy under Arsene Wenger.
JAMIE FACT #2: JAMIE’S BEST SEASON CAME IN A SYSTEM WHERE POSSESSION WAS NOT A KEY FACTOR FOR VICTORY
Leicester won the Premier League pretty comfortably to be fair. They perfected a style of play that their opponents just could not handle. This style was very different from the style used by Arsenal. Possession was not a priority. Rather moving the ball from the back to the front end of the pitch as quickly and effectively as possible was the objective for Leicester City. Creating space in behind the opposition was Leicester’s default attack. This is not the case for Arsenal. This can be demonstrated by the average amount of passes per game during the 2015/16 season. Arsenal were 1st with a 559.3. Leicester were 18th with a 351.8 average. For possession it is pretty much the same. Arsenal were 1st with 56.9% whereas Leicester were 18th with 44.8% average per game. Clearly some adaptation is required when Vardy makes his move either from the club, the player or both.
ARSENAL FACT #3: ARSENALS SPENDING HABITS DO NOT POSITIVELY CORRELATE WITH THE EXPONENTIAL INCREASE IN THE PRICE OF TOP STRIKERS
We all know that Arsenal are not too fond of spending ridiculous amounts of money on players. However this is even more interesting when you consider this in comparison with other teams they compete with every season to win the Premier League. If Arsenal end up buying Vardy it would be only the fourth time they have spent 20m or more on a signing since 2004. Manchester City have signed a massive 18 players for 20m or more since then and Chelsea are close behind with 16. No surprises there. The interesting comparison however is between Liverpool and Arsenal. Liverpool have spent 20m or more on 12 players since 2004 compared to Arsenals 3, excluding Vardy. This goes to show that this is more of a conscious choice by Arsene; as Liverpool do not have the financial clout of City or Chelsea yet they are still willing to break the bank if need be to get the man they want.
In addition, strikers have always been the golden goose of the footballing world but there has never been a time more than now that their prices have been so high. I will keep this short and sweet with the following examples:
- Carlos Tevez to Man City (2009): £47.5m
- Radamel Falcao to Monaco (2010): £51m
- Fernando Torres to Chelsea (2011): £50m
- Sergio Aguero to Man City (2011): £38m
- Gonzalo Higuain to Napoli (2013): £34.5m
- Edison Cavani to PSG (2013): £55m
- Neymar to Barcelona (2013): £71.5m
- Luis Suarez to Barcelona (2014): £65m
- Anthony Martial to Man United (2015): £36m (which could rise to approximately 61.5m depending on met clauses)
Considering a sample of strikers that Arsenal have shown interest in signing over the past couple of seasons (Karim Benzema, Edison Cavani, Gonzalo Higuian, Alvaro Morata, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang) two of those five are on the ‘biggest transfer fee for strikers in history’ list. If Arsenal bid for any of them; they would not come cheap both in transfer fee and wage demands. If Karim decided to leave Real Madrid (a very big if) he most definitely would not come cheap. Aubameyang’s contract at Dortmund expires in 2020. Regardless of whether you think these strikers have proven they were worth the price tag the fact still remains that top level strikers do not come cheap. And considering Arsenals spending track record it is very unlikely that they would put in a stupendous bid for a striker considering the current rate of inflation.
JAMIE FACT #3: 20M POUNDS FOR A 24-GOAL ENGLISH STRIKER PREMIER LEAGUE CHAMPION IS AN ABSOLUTE BARGAIN
Considering the list of strikers above and their prices and Vardy’s price; if the deal goes through this move cannot be seen as anything other than a bargain. It is even more of a bargain considering the amount English players are sold for. For those who don’t know English players cost ridiculous amounts of money. This list of the most expensive British players may shock you:
- Raheem Sterling to Man City: £49m
- Andy Carroll to Liverpool: £35m
- Rio Ferdinand to Man United: £30m
- Luke Shaw to Man United: £30m
- Wayne Rooney to Man United: £27m
- James Milner to Man City: £26m
- Adam Lallana to Liverpool: £25m
- David Beckham to Real Madrid: £24.5m
- Darren Bent to Aston Villa: £24m
- Joleon Lescott to Man City: £22m
The fact that Jamie Vardy as a Premier League Champion, Football Writers Association Footballer of the Year, England International AND joint second top Premier League goal scorer in the 2015/16 season with Sergio Aguero will be cheaper than JOLEON LESCOTT says more than anything else I can write in this section to be perfectly honest.
CONCLUSION: So what of the move?
To be honest there are so many different ways to interpret this move. Vardy has a very strange footballing CV and maybe doesn’t match the profile of the kind of strikers Arsenal fans have been used to seeing up front. To put it simply; he is not Robin Van Persie. Or Dennis Bergkamp. Or Thierry Henry. He isn’t the guy you want to put on the back of your shirt come August. There is also an element of risk to the move considering the style of play differences between Leicester and Arsenal. However all things considered this is probably the most realistic move for a striker Arsenal fans could have expected this summer. And considering the season he just had; it is definitely a statement of intent from Arsenal. Whether it works or not is what I will really enjoy observing over the coming season.
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